some gamblers' fallacies
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Seeing past turns of the wheel as influencing future turns fails to see
the meaning of random. It fails to see the meaning
of a fair wheel. Conlsult
THE SKEPTICS DICTIONARY. (Regular readers
of Marilyn vos Savant's column in Parade will have seen a
discussion of this point in the first weeks of Jan 2000.)
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The meaning of expectation value of a bet (or insurance premium,
etc) is very often not conceptualized. Expectation value of a dollar
bet on the lottery is often less than 50 cents. At 50 cents,
the losses will become closer and closer to one half of all the money bet
the longer and longer the lottery is played. For those who don't
see, the lottery is very effective sucker bait. [SEE]
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Seeing a person actually win the lottery often gives a sense that "if that
person can win so can I." Does that fact improve my odds over
what the expectation value tells me? Not really. My view is
just my view. All gamblers have their view–and expect
they
can win. Winning requires seeing the whole picture.
See only what I wish, and I can prove (to myself) I will win the lottery.
In fact I can prove anything!!